Separation is inevitable.
I write this post with great foreboding and sadness. But realities on the ground must be acknowledged and with each passing day it is becoming clearer to me that there is no alternative left but to separate the Shia south from the rest of the country. And I do mean in the fullest sense, and not as a separate federal state which is also part of the rest of Iraq. The situation has developed too far for any other solution to be possible. The Shia politicians want this, the people of the south seam to have been convinced of this, and the rest of Iraq cannot accept the rule of the Mullahs so they will also see no alternative but to accept this.. Of course, this will come as music to the ears of the Iranians, but to be honest they have played a good strategic game and have outflanked everyone,. Let no one say Iranians are stupid.
I don’t say this lightly, but with each passing day and with each atrocity committed by both the Sunni Wahhabi factions and the Shia fundamental militias.. We, the Iraqi citizens are facing powers much greater than what we are able to withstand. Also, it is clear that central Iraq ( and I mean not just the Sunnis, but the liberals and Kurds also) does not want to have anything to do with the Shia government and their secret police militia assassination squads, In return the Shia general public is also suffering tremendously from sectarian killing by persons of unknown ( or maybe known) affiliations.. My point is, the two sides cannot live together under these circumstances and perhaps separation is the only solution.
This way, all sides can get on with the business of governing their prospective regions and citizens and they will have no more excuses of interference from any other third party.. If the Shia in the south turns out to become a fundamentalist state similar to Iran then so be it. The Shia in the south have made their bed and they can lie in it. None can say they have not been warned, they only need to look at Iran and its past 30 years.. If they want that life, they can have it..
The Kurds will be fine, they are the most western and liberal of the three factions and they will survive especially with the support and help of the Americans..
As for the Sunnis,, I still hold some hope for them, they have made a great move in accepting the liberals and moderators into a coalition with them.. People like Allawi, Pichachi and the others like them, will help them quickly modernise and kick out any Arabian terrorists within their midst..
This separation will not be easy; firstly, many regions in the south have substantial mixed Sunni and Shia communities living side by side.. Basra for instance has a population that is 20% Sunni.. Also, some kind of agreement must be made regarding Oil revenue and access to southern ports.. Both issues will be difficult.
I don’t want to see this happen, but everything that I’m hearing lately from UIA supporters is talk of such a move.. I don’t think a government will be formed in time, and I am 1000% (I will bet my house on it in fact) that the UIA will never allow a rerun of the December elections.
So, there u have..