The past few days in Iraq has certainly been an eye opener to a great many people. The last days sectarian tension has certainly shown the true faces and intensions of certain people and the true dangers facing Iraq. I personally thing that the end game is almost upon us, and as much as I want to be optimistic about the outcome, I am not holding much hope for Iraq in the near to medium term future. There are just too many external and internal forces pushing and pulling at Iraq’s soul and I fear America has long lost both the good will and support of the average Iraqi people to be of any significance in the process. The only thing that America can do now is try to stand back and offer as much logistical and technical support to the people it deems to be worthy.. (kida what they are doing right now in fact).. Also their presence will make any outbreak of an all out civil war that much more less unlikely, simply out of fear from of the warring factions of American reprisals if they step too much out of line.
The reasons why I think the political process is doomed are simple in fact. They are born out of what I have seen from the political factions and their motivations which are simply centered around gaining and consolidating power.
What the events of the past few days show is a clear signal from the Shia political body that they are not interested in sharing power with anyone and that if this government is not formed according to their own wishes then separation will be the only resort.
I know that some of you will say how did u come to this conclusion, but we simply have to read between the lines to work it out. Most of the News and media outlets that belong to the UIA have been very critical of the American ambassador’s comments lately and these past few days we have seen a great escalation in the rhetoric calling for separation and the establishment of the Shia state in the south..
What this clearly shows is that the UIA and its leadership has read the script and has decided that if they cannot hole power in Baghdad then they sure as hell will make Baghdad irrelevant and establish a new power base in the south where they can hold court without any interference from those pesky Americans and their Iraqi Kurdish and liberal allies.
Of course such a step will be slightly problematic at first, for it requires the pretext of a threat of the civil war, but as we have seen the past few days, such a threat can easily be stage managed. And thus (and to Iraq’s great misfortune) the UIA leadership will take great heart from the events of the last few days and they will most likely keep the events of the past few days in mind.
The upside of such a step is that the shi’a factions themselves are quite divided and there is every guarantee that as soon as such a state is established, these same factions who are allies of a kind now will turn on each other and fight over control of the resources and power in the south.
It is almost tempting to allow such a course of events to finally take their course, as that will lead us quickly to the final settlement in Iraq, but one must not be so flippant about such things. A civil war in Iraq which leads to the fragmentation to the country will bring about huge civilian casualties and untold suffering on a scale hard to imagined. Also , such events are hard to predict the outcome of and could lead to a region wide struggle of power which will most definitely impact on the world and global economy…
This brings me back to the top.. So what do I think.. In my humble opinion, I think the fools and idiots running the show will bring disaster upon us all. I have seen nothing so far to make me think that these crazies have an ounce of brain cells between them. And when the asylum members break out of the asylum, the sane villagers better run.